Facts over fear: Poland needs real data, not assumptions, in bomass debate

Is Poland really facing a biomass shortage, or is it navigating an environment shaped by fragmented information and rising speculation? Baltpool, the international biomass exchange, encourages stakeholders to anchor ongoing energy debates in data. As Poland updates its energy and climate plans, market participants and regulators alike should rely on evidence – not assumptions.

“There’s long been a background noise about shortages – but recently, it’s grown louder. And still, we must ask: where is the actual proof?” says Ramunas Waszkiewicz, Market lead Poland at Baltpool. “Policy should be grounded in real market data, not speculation.”

Baltpool’s experience in the Baltic region offers an instructive example. When Lithuania stopped importing biomass from Belarus in 2022, it triggered an immediate price shock and a strong wave of uncertainty in the market. Prices surged, and questions were raised about whether local producers could cover the supply gap left by the ban on Belarusian imports. Not long after, a second challenge arrived: the commissioning of the Vilnius Combined Heat and Power Plant, which added substantial new demand to the market—right after the supply system had just adapted to the previous shock. These challenges followed one after the other, creating real stress for the market and its participants.

Initially, market participants were expecting chaos and sustained imbalance. However, what followed was not collapse, but rapid adjustment. The market, with support from all sides—regulators, producers, buyers, and state forestry—quickly recalibrated. The Baltpool platform played a significant role as one of the key mechanisms enabling transparency and efficiency, but it was the combined efforts of the whole ecosystem that ensured the market remained functional and efficient. As a result, prices stabilized over the course of the winter season, and by the end of 2022/23, the Lithuanian biomass market had not only adapted, but demonstrated remarkable resilience: by the close of the 2023/24 heating season, the average biomass price in Lithuania had dropped by 40%, returning to pre-crisis levels. Heating prices for consumers fell by nearly 20%.

“People expected major disruption and market chaos. But what they got was a balanced ecosystem,” recalls R. Waszkiewicz. “This was possible because the market had tools in place—like our trading platform—that made the real situation visible and enabled quick, informed responses.”

Today, Poland faces its own challenge – not from a lost supply route, but from internal uncertainty. As transparency and verified data remain scarce, speculation grows, and narratives are increasingly shaped by those who shout the loudest. Recent comments from the Ministry of Climate and Environment suggest biomass use will be scaled back due to limited resources. Imports from countries like Ukraine are seen as a potentially competitive force with lower-cost raw materials, possibly impacting domestic producers.

But Baltpool draws attention to the risks of basing decisions on assumptions rather than facts. “There may be constraints, yes. But let’s measure them properly. Don’t close the door before you even check what’s on the other side,” says Ramunas Waszkiewicz.

During the 2023/24 heating season, the average biomass price in Lithuania dropped by 40% compared to the previous season – from 38.9 EUR/MWh to 23.58 EUR/MWh. This significant decrease in biomass prices directly influenced end-user heating prices, which also fell by 16% (from 86.83 EUR/MWh to 72.83 EUR/MWh). Throughout the season, supply chains functioned smoothly and there were no significant disruptions. Instead, the market demonstrated resilience and the ability to self-regulate after the previous price shock and supply challenges.

Similar trends were observed in Latvia and Estonia, with double-digit price reductions and stable market adjustment.

At the same time, collaboration between regulators, state forestry, and market participants reached record levels. In fact, Lithuania’s State Forest Enterprise supplied an all-time high volume of raw material, contributing further to price stabilization and supply security. By the 2023/24 heating season, average biomass prices in Lithuania were down to 23.58 EUR/MWh (a 40% drop year-on-year), and consumer heating prices fell to 72.83 EUR/MWh. Similar trends were observed in Latvia and Estonia, with double-digit price reductions and a smooth market adjustment.

These are the kinds of indicators that should guide Poland’s energy planning.

“When information is lacking, fear fills the gap. But when data is available, fear fades – and knowledge, data-based arguments, and decisions come to light,” says Ramunas Waszkiewicz, Market lead Poland at Baltpool.

Baltpool calls on regulators, market participants, and all involved stakeholders to make use of its real-time trading data, analytics, and reference prices. With these tools, the market becomes predictable, decisions become smarter, and operational processes are optimized.

“We’re offering our data and expertise built through years. Let’s ground the debate in facts not speculations.”